In-depth Insights: Choosing A Car Accident Insurance Lawyer

In-depth Insights: Choosing A Car Accident Insurance Lawyer – This article highlights some of the work we are doing at Esri to define artificial intelligence and machine learning, however: the opinions expressed in this article are my own and not those of my employer. This article is intended to be a brief technical introduction to one application of geospatial machine learning, rather than as a comprehensive solution. There are a lot of exciting things happening at Esri and great and true innovation. I’m really excited to be a part of it!

Every year, people die and 50 million are injured in car crashes around the world (ASIRT). Can machine learning help save lives? I believe the answer is yes, and this article explains one possible approach.

In-depth Insights: Choosing A Car Accident Insurance Lawyer

In-depth Insights: Choosing A Car Accident Insurance Lawyer

Many governments collect accident data and make this data public. In addition, there are many data sets on road infrastructure. We will use public information on road infrastructure and weather data to attempt to use supervised machine learning to predict crash risk for each road segment in Utah on an hourly basis.

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(Disclaimer: I am using different accident data from 2010, which is not available online)

We formulate the prediction of traffic accidents as a two-dimensional model problem (accidents and non-accidents). It can also be expressed as a recovery problem (number of accidents), but for our time horizon (one hour) we don’t expect more than one accident per road segment, so this simplifies the problem slightly. There are other ways, but this is the one we take here. Typically, flow is modeled via a Poisson model or a negative binomial model. By choosing a small portion of the road and a small time interval, we can treat each observation as a unique Bernoulli transition (hence using the cross-entropy loss function as the objective)

We can use the record of approximately half a million car accidents over seven years as the best example. You may ask yourself: What are the good and bad aspects of your personality? good question! Every segment/hour combination is probably a bad example. Over 7 years, this equates to approximately 24.5 billion bad examples per 400,000 road segments.

Machine learning practitioners will see an issue here, namely class inequality. Serious class imbalance. If we use all the data to train the model, our model will be more focused on accident prevention. This is a problem when we want to estimate the risk of accidents.

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To solve this problem, instead of using all 24.5 billion bad examples, we use the sampling method described later in this article.

Anyone who has traveled knows the impact time can have on a car accident. We can see the situation seven years after the accident in the picture below:

Here’s our gut feeling: Most accidents happen during weekday afternoon rush hours. Another observation from the vertical transect is that accidents tend to peak in December/January. Utah regularly experiences heavy snow and ice at this time, so this is no surprise. This emphasizes the importance of good weather information as input to this model. Utah sees an average of 15 accidents per day during rush hour.

In-depth Insights: Choosing A Car Accident Insurance Lawyer

Now that we know what to predict, what are the inputs? What situations can cause a car accident. The answer obviously has many factors, some of which we’ve included in this review.

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Left: Accidents tend to pile up around intersections, especially at intersections. Right: Accidents are more likely to occur on winding roads

This is where the geospatial aspect of this analysis becomes important. This is a spatial problem, and our machine learning models must consider many different sources of geospatial data and their relationships to each other. This involves a large number of geoprocessing operations and can be very costly. I use the ArcGIS platform for this.

(Disclaimer: I’m an Esri guy, but I have a background in open source geos. You can certainly do a lot of this analysis without using ArcGIS, but it would be difficult. If you’re not an ArcGIS user, I still recommend checking out ArcGIS API for Python, if used only for data processing, since most of the data is available through various ArcGIS-based services. For example, it can be well designed if ArcGIS does not exist. Native databases (such as PostgreSQL with PostGIS ) will be of great help. )

Static features are the majority of the input data that do not change over time. This includes factors derived from road geometry (such as curvature) or other factors (such as wind speed or population density). But in fact, it’s not

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For example, but He changes little by little, allowing us to see that He is always present in all things.

Changes in behavior depend on how we make assumptions. These are the sources of weather, solar geometry, and time variables (hour, month, day, etc.).

We had to count all of these features for every part of the road, about 400,000 of them. We wrote this process using the Arcpy Python library that comes with ArcGIS Pro. Let’s take a quick look at this example:

In-depth Insights: Choosing A Car Accident Insurance Lawyer

The code snippet above uses the proximity tool to find the nearest street sign for each street in our database. We compute several proximity-based features to build a static feature dataset.

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Close to the board. The article documents some potential disruption to drivers, but it also represents a high-traffic area as the ads need to be seen by a large audience.

We also have to extract features from the road geometry itself. For example, to estimate the corner of a road, we use “curvature” as the symbol. Meandering is the ratio of the path length to the shortest distance between the two ends. Again using Arcpy we calculate:

Now let’s talk about the weather. There are many different weather forecasts out there, but we choose to use reliable hourly weather sources from NOAA. We have several weather stations, but we want to understand the weather from all aspects. Another approach is to link the weather at the top station to individual road segments. To do this, we can use a technique called kriging in the field of geostatistics or Gaussian process regression in the field of machine learning. ArcGIS has a built-in Empirical Bayesian Kriging tool in the Geostatistical Toolbox, which includes a robust implementation of this method that uses previous empirical distributions of the data and eliminates a lot of parameter clutter. If this isn’t an option for you, there are other techniques such as slimming or easy-to-combine areas (I started doing this for simplicity). If you have some data that gives a better estimate of how geography affects climate (such as elevation or other advanced climate models), you can feed it into a spatially weighted regression model to be even more accurate.

In summary, we can say that many spatial operations have been performed to develop a set of useful risk prediction models. These features are then used to build a training set for a supervised machine learning model.

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Now that the geospatial process is complete, we can turn our attention to actually building the training set. To do this, we use the ArcGIS Python API, pandas, and various other Python libraries. Much of this is standard data wrangling, but an important part of all work is creating negative samples; that is, what are the examples of accidents.

Another approach is to test multiple roads/multiple times without incident, but this has some drawbacks. There are times when accidents are rare and there are many roads, but on roads where accidents are common, the most important problem to solve is to distinguish accidents from non-accidents. What caused the accident?

We chose to use a sampling method that builds a series of bad examples that are similar to our good examples so that the machine learning model can learn to find positive differences between accidents and non-accidents. Of course, there is an element of randomness, so we will also give some very different examples. The process is as follows:

In-depth Insights: Choosing A Car Accident Insurance Lawyer

This leaves us with a training system that is difficult to use because it is difficult to distinguish between good and bad examples. That’s not a problem – it’s a difficult problem and we’re not trying to make our numbers look good, we’re concerned with actual results. This is a common approach for situations like this.

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As you can see from the above bullet points, individual strings like hour, week, and month are popular codes. All continuous variables were converted to z scores using scikit-learn StandardScaler. We also transform the sinusoids using a logarithmic transformation because most values ​​are close to 1 and we want to see more small differences than large differences (a long and windy path).

My departure

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