In-depth Insights: Choosing A Car Accident Insurance Lawyer – This article highlights some of the work we are doing at Esri to define artificial intelligence and machine learning, however: the opinions expressed in this article are my own and not those of my employer. This article is intended to be a brief technical introduction to one application of geospatial machine learning, rather than as a comprehensive solution. There are a lot of exciting things happening at Esri and great and true innovation. I’m really excited to be a part of it!
Every year, people die and 50 million are injured in car crashes around the world (ASIRT). Can machine learning help save lives? I believe the answer is yes, and this article explains one possible approach.
In-depth Insights: Choosing A Car Accident Insurance Lawyer
Many governments collect accident data and make this data public. In addition, there are many data sets on road infrastructure. We will use public information on road infrastructure and weather data to attempt to use supervised machine learning to predict crash risk for each road segment in Utah on an hourly basis.
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(Disclaimer: I am using different accident data from 2010, which is not available online)
We formulate the prediction of traffic accidents as a two-dimensional model problem (accidents and non-accidents). It can also be expressed as a recovery problem (number of accidents), but for our time horizon (one hour) we don’t expect more than one accident per road segment, so this simplifies the problem slightly. There are other ways, but this is the one we take here. Typically, flow is modeled via a Poisson model or a negative binomial model. By choosing a small portion of the road and a small time interval, we can treat each observation as a unique Bernoulli transition (hence using the cross-entropy loss function as the objective)
We can use the record of approximately half a million car accidents over seven years as the best example. You may ask yourself: What are the good and bad aspects of your personality? good question! Every segment/hour combination is probably a bad example. Over 7 years, this equates to approximately 24.5 billion bad examples per 400,000 road segments.
Machine learning practitioners will see an issue here, namely class inequality. Serious class imbalance. If we use all the data to train the model, our model will be more focused on accident prevention. This is a problem when we want to estimate the risk of accidents.
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To solve this problem, instead of using all 24.5 billion bad examples, we use the sampling method described later in this article.
Anyone who has traveled knows the impact time can have on a car accident. We can see the situation seven years after the accident in the picture below:
Here’s our gut feeling: Most accidents happen during weekday afternoon rush hours. Another observation from the vertical transect is that accidents tend to peak in December/January. Utah regularly experiences heavy snow and ice at this time, so this is no surprise. This emphasizes the importance of good weather information as input to this model. Utah sees an average of 15 accidents per day during rush hour.
Now that we know what to predict, what are the inputs? What situations can cause a car accident. The answer obviously has many factors, some of which we’ve included in this review.
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Left: Accidents tend to pile up around intersections, especially at intersections. Right: Accidents are more likely to occur on winding roads
This is where the geospatial aspect of this analysis becomes important. This is a spatial problem, and our machine learning models must consider many different sources of geospatial data and their relationships to each other. This involves a large number of geoprocessing operations and can be very costly. I use the ArcGIS platform for this.
(Disclaimer: I’m an Esri guy, but I have a background in open source geos. You can certainly do a lot of this analysis without using ArcGIS, but it would be difficult. If you’re not an ArcGIS user, I still recommend checking out ArcGIS API for Python, if used only for data processing, since most of the data is available through various ArcGIS-based services. For example, it can be well designed if ArcGIS does not exist. Native databases (such as PostgreSQL with PostGIS ) will be of great help. )
Static features are the majority of the input data that do not change over time. This includes factors derived from road geometry (such as curvature) or other factors (such as wind speed or population density). But in fact, it’s not
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